Brian Analyses his Fantasy Football Draft

We just had our fantasy football draft and I've spent most of the night analyzing the results. Sometimes I think I do more engineering work at home than I do at the actual work. For reference my team is Power Dump. I'm sure you remember my team from last year.

I went through each team and looked at how their picks compared with average player picks. So for example Nick picked up Carson Plamer with the 68th overall pick. So far this year Carson Palmer has been taken with the 90.3 pick on average. So I took each teams average picks along with the average draft pick and compared them. I decided that many times the later rounds don't matter as much and people generally use those picks on risky players and players that won't really impact the team. So I also compared the first 12 rounds to drop out any crazy outliers from the final 5 rounds.

The average pick is the your average overall pick for those rounds. If you had a later picks then your average pick is obviously higher than someone who picked early in the draft. This accounts for the first 5 rounds being perfectly even. [We do a keeper league so the first 5 picks are preselected -ed] The average selection is the average overall pick that your players went for in all of Yahoo drafts.

IN DRAFT ORDER here are the results:

Fuck you Brad Watson
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 46.5
Average Selection - 54.5
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 54.3
Average Selection - 62.9
OVERALL
Average Pick - 66.0
Average Selection 70.9

Power Dump
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 47.0
Average Selection - 50.3
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 54.,9
Average Selection - 55.5
OVERALL
Average Pick - 66.7
Average Selection 64.7

Caketown Spartans
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 47.6
Average Selection - 46.0
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 55.5
Average Selection - 56.8
OVERALL
Average Pick - 67.4
Average Selection 67.1

CMU
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 48.2
Average Selection - 50.3
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 56.2
Average Selection - 56.1
OVERALL
Average Pick - 68.1
Average Selection 66.7

*Nick you did really well drafting the last 5 rounds. All your picks were below their average pick.

Shit
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 48.8
Average Selection - 57.4
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 56.8
Average Selection - 64.3
OVERALL
Average Pick - 68.9
Average Selection 75.3

Cougar Cornbread
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 49.4
Average Selection - 53.8
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 57.5
Average Selection - 59.5
OVERALL
Average Pick - 69.6
Average Selection 70.0

*Evan you also did rather well for yourself in the last 5 rounds

Go Blue
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 50.0
Average Selection - 48.0
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 58.1
Average Selection - 66.3
OVERALL
Average Pick - 70.3
Average Selection 74.4

Believe in Now
FIRST 12 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 50.5
Average Selection - 47.2
FIRST 14 ROUNDS:
Average Pick - 58.8
Average Selection - 56.7
OVERALL
Average Pick - 71.0
Average Selection 66.7


So who had the best draft?

That is subjective to how much you value late round picks. But since it is my belief that the first 12 rounds are the ones that really matter I've computed the delta between the average pick and average selection to come up with a best draft ranking.

Best Draft Rankings:
1. Believe in Now (-3.3)
2. Caketown Spartans (-1.6)
3..CMU (+2.1)
4. Power Dump (+3.2)
5. Cougar Cornbread (+4.5)
6. Go Blue (+8.0) TIE
6. Fuck You Brad Watson (+8.0) TIE
8. Shit (+8.6)

Now we can look at who has the best team by average draft pick.

Best Team First 12 Rounds:
1. Caketown Spartans (46.0)
2. Believe in Now (47.2)
3. Power Dump (50.3) TIE
3. CMU (50.3) TIE
5. Cougar Cornbread (53.8)
6. Fuck You Brad Watson (54.5)
7. Shit (57.4)
8. Go Blue (58.0)

Finally we can rank the best teams overall.

Best Team Overall (All Rounds):
1. Power Dump (64.7)
2. Believe in Now (66.7) TIE
3. CMU (66.7) TIE
4. Caketown Spartans (67.1)
5. Cougar Cornbread (70.0)
6. Fuck You Brad Watson (70.9)
7. Go Blue (74.4)
8. Shit (75.3)


Note: This analysis doesn't include any transactions made after the draft.