One of the benefits of living on the west coast is that I get to watch the college football lines come out on Sunday night. Usually I have a pretty good idea about what the lines will look like. If I see a line that is far different than I expect it I know it might be a good game to bet on.
When the line came out Sunday night for the Michigan-Michigan State game I sat in awe on my floor. I had expected a Michigan -7 line. This means that Michigan was expected to win by 7 points. The actual line was only Michigan -1. I had a few guesses to why the line might be so low, but I mainly figured that the line was low because on Sunday night it appeared that Tate Forcier might be out/limited for this game. When I read that Tate was expected to be fine for the game I rushed home Monday hoping the line hadn't moved to much against Michigan. When I got home I couldn't believe it. The line had moved to Michigan +0. Basically saying you just had to pick the winner. I took line at Michigan +0 smugly thinking that the line might fall to as much as Mich -3. But I've sat in disbelief as the line keeps inching up to where it sits now at Michigan +2.5.
I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS. The #22 ranked undefeated Michigan team is 2.5 point underdogs against a 1-3 Michigan State squad whose sole win is against D-2 Montana State. I mean MSU was 14.5 point favorites when they lost to Central Michigan. What does Vegas see in this MSU team? That two of their O-Lineman are questionable for the game? WTF?
Also an O/U of 57.5 seems mighty low considering these are both highly offensive teams with shaky defenses. I don't think a score of 28-25 or higher is out of the question, but O/U's are tricky things to bet on so I'll hold off on this at least until a decent weather report comes out.
2 comments:
MSU barely lost to ND on the road, while we barely won at home. That equates in betting to even teams.
Plus, you know that MSU treats this as the most important game of the year.
Finally, I'd be leery of touching this game. Corners not named Donovan Warren may be torched by MSU's receiving corps, and you don't know how healthy Forcier really is.
Line is now MSU -3.5 I am a little angry for taking the line at Mich +0. I could have gotten a free field goal.
If you use ND as a solid benchmark you'll see that ND was -3 vs Mich and -10.5 vs MSU. Even giving Michigan a touchdown benefit for being the home team would still put Mich as the favorite by half a point.
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