Monday, January 18, 2010

Whistler Weekend

One of the questions asked in my job interview was "Do you ski or snowboard?".
I replied, "Yes I was on my high school Ski Team"
"Good, because were going to Whister in January."

This past weekend was what has become the legendary Whistler Weekend. I had heard much lore about previous weekends involving a Major in the US Marines, a coffee pot and Red Bull + Vodka. Luckily being just out of college I knew I could keep up with these fools who had a couple of years on me.

We took Friday off work and drove up. The drive up on the Sea to Sky highway was absolutely stunning. The 11 of us were in a condo right by the village that had a Hot Tub. We were close enough we could walk to the the base. The accommodations were nice. We got up there around 5 and immediately started drinking. We had bought some stuff at the duty free on the way up. Duty free is legit, I got 2 fifths of Beefeater for $20 and a fifth of Bacardi Select for $15. Once I started drinking I forgot that I hadn't eaten dinner and I was completely wasted by 7PM.

We went out to the bar soon after that. We got into the bar and I went up to the bar to order the first round and bartender almost cut me off before serving me anything. I believe his exact words were "You guys look pretty sloshed already, I'll let you have this one, but slow down." While most of the next 3 hours exist as a 30 minutes in my memory, I went and sat down at a table full of girls and just started hitting on all of them. You see, MLK weekend is also College weekend, so there were lots of college girls around. I usually told them that I was a Senior at Michigan, but then soon after would forget the lie and talk about how I worked in Seattle. My biggest problem was that I was too drunk to remember anyone's name. I would start talking to a girl and then instantly have to ask her what her name was again and again. Eventually my friends found me on the dance floor grinding on a girl and to my dismay we left. Somehow I got lost because my next memory is me riding in a bus. But the bar was only like a 5 minute walk from our place. I got of the bus and bit it on a patch of ice. Eventually I found my way home and made it to bed.

Bright and way too early the next morning people were getting up to hit the slopes. It was a gorgeous day and I was proud to have made it to the mountain by 10 AM. There are two mountians that you can Ski from the base of Whistler. One gondola takes you to Whistler mountain and the other to Blackcomb. They face each other and there is a gondola that runs between the tops of both mountains. The gondola just opened up last year and is something like the longest unsupported span for any gondola in the world. It's really cool. The two days before we got there the mountain had been closed because they had a storm dump over 4 feet of fresh powder. The two mountains form the largest ski-able area in North America, and are 54% larger than the next largest (Vail). It has over 200 runs, of which I maybe went down 30. The skiing was awesome.

Saturday night we all went out for sushi and then after some pre-gaming and Rock Band we went out. My co-worker had managed to get us all on the list at a few of the bars. So instead of a 20 minute wait and a $25 cover, we were given VIP access. This time I just stuck with the line that I had graduated in Way. After getting brutally turned down from an Oregon State girl, me and my buddy Dan found two Sophomores at U-Dub who were no joke named Hope and Roxy. I swear those weren't their stage names either. I took the job of Wingman and grabbed Roxy and went to the dance floor. Roxy was less cute than Hope (who had a terrific rack) but she was a great dancer. A few shots and songs later we were making out and it was closing time. Dan gave the girl his number and made her text him even though she was on roaming charges. As Dan and I walked home we met two 30-something year olds that we tried to convince to come back to our hot tub. They weren't having any of it.

Sunday I was super hung over. Between my Unidentified Drinking Injuries (UDI's) and skiing I was pretty beat up. We made it up to Blackcomb and get some fresh powder that had fallen the previous night. We got some solid runs in were about to head over the Peak to Peak gondola to go back to Whistler Mountain. From the chairlift we could see a spot near the top where snowboarders were getting some mad air off of this lip on an ungroomed area. I decided to jump it on my ski's. With everyone skiing down the mountain and on the chairlift watching I decided to go for. Footloose had just come on my iPod so as I raced towards this 10 foot jump I dedicated my jump to Swayze. I shot out of the jump and I was told I was about 15 feet above the lip. I came down about 20 feet down the mountain and landed in 2 feet of powder. The instant my skis hit the powder they stopped and I wrecked face first into the snow. I could hear the collective "OHHHHHH" from everyone who was watching. People up the hill said it they saw me take the header and then it was a cloud of snow. Luckily it was soft powder so except for a mouthful of snow I was fine. The adrenaline rush stayed with me for the next hour.

While we took our time skiing down Whistler I went down a part of run where they are doing the Super-G in the Olympics in a few weeks. It was sweet, and even though my legs were like jello I shot down it. That night we went out to a Japanese steakhouse for dinner and then back to the condo. We were too beat to go out so instead we invented a drinking game for The Hangover. It involves drinking everytime they say the name of their lost friend Doug. It is great because you get to drink at least once every five minutes, and there are a few parts where you really need to chug. Like in the desert drug dealer scene, and when Ed Helms sings his ballad about Doug. I was drinking out of an abandoned two-liter bottle, so even though I only had two drinks, a liter of G n' T and a liter of Rum + Coke really put me on my ass.

Part of The Stroll in the Village

Overall, I came away super impressed with Whistler. The Skiing is unmatched. The village is beautiful and fun. Maybe it was just because it was college weekend, but the crowds seemed to be more fun too, unlike at Aspen where everyone is trying to be sophisticated and classy. Also, as an added bonus, all of the employees are from Australia. I don't need to detail what I would do for a girl with an Australian accent. My only complaint about anything would be that the lift lines were pretty long. Usually they were around 15 minutes but a couple of times they were over 25. But that's somewhat minor.



After consuming McDonald's for breakfast, Beef Jerky and 5 hour energy for lunch and eating massive dinners, my digestive system is completely wrecked. But one of the guys we were talking to on the lift told us how his hang over cure was - no joke - Red Bull and Pedialyte. The other guy on the lift then chimed in "Yeah, that's always what I do too". Is this common? How have I not heard of this yet? It makes sense though, Pedialyte is like packed full of hydration. I just need to figure out how to buy it without looking crazy.

So I'll leave you with a list of my current injuries and how they occurred:
Right shin scabbed up - Ski Boot
Left knee scabbed - Skiing mishap
Right armpit bruised - Co-worker body slam
Left bicep bruised - ????
Right elbow sore and bruised - Falling on the ice
Right pinky blood blisters - ??????
Tailbone - Falling on the ice while blackout/body slam
Whole body soreness - Whistler Weekend '10

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NFL Bets Analysis

See the previous posts on my NFL betting strategy here and here.

This year, I tested the waters of NFL season over/under bets. I made this statement before the season began.

Again, the theme was bet on unders, and most likely there will be more teams that finish with less than 5 wins than Vegas predicts.

My three bets went 2-0-1 with Tampa Bay and Detroit both hitting the under and Miami resulting in a push. Also my prediction that there will be more teams with less than 5 wins than Vegas predicts was spot on. Vegas predicted there would be one, there were actually 5.

Check out this sweet chart I made. Then check out the badass graph I made.



So I did the full analysis to see if my system of betting would have proved profitable this year. With my system I would have bet on 18 unders and 14 overs. I would have ended up going 18-11-3. So in theory if I would have place $100 on each bet I would be up $700 at the end of the season. But the way sports betting works is that payouts aren't always 1:1. Usually you have to bet $110 to make $100. So if I bet $100 on each team and went 16-16 I wouldn't necessarily break even. I would actually be down like $160. Some bets pay out better than 2:1 though. This is because bookies will change the payouts to get even betting on both sides. This season even though I would have won 7 more than I lost I would have only made $535.

But one of the issues with betting on every team is that my systems sometimes finds the Vegas odds to be nearly identical to my odds. Then putting a bet down is like a coin flip. But it can be worse if the payouts are less than 1:1. So if I paired down my system to only the biggest differences between my predictions and Vegas odds and bet those I would have gone 10-6 and won $335.

While I've only looked at one season I am confidant that my systems works pretty well. But the real question is if my system is a better predictor of wins then the sportsbooks are. As a side note, my system relies on the Vegas odds to make my predictions. So I guess my systems relies on Vegas to be at least somewhat close to the actual odds, and from what I can tell they are.

So, I looked at the total difference between the actual results and both Vegas and my system. Vegas was off by 61 wins, while I was off by 58.33 wins. My variance was also 1.61 wins compared to 1.65 for Vegas. But I'm not sure that this comparison is valid because Vegas odds are in increments of .5 and my predictions are decimals.

I like the idea of betting the season over/under because the bet can minimize the randomness of football outcomes by aggregating a teams performance over 16 games. Sure they might get upset a couple of times, but they might also pull a few of their own. At the end of the day usually they are who we thought they were. So will I take this action next season? You betcha.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

WTTIF Turns Three

I'm pretty sure this blog jumped the shark on Saturday August 15th, 2009. But up until then, this was a pretty strong year for the blog. As the standard for the birthday post, I re-read all my posts from the past year. The upsetting thing is how many absurd things happened over the last year that I didn't blog about. That's why I think I might make a couple of posts about some of the crazy things I never got to blog about.

Who knows what this year will hold. But I hope to blog more. Right now my life is consumed by Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and NCAA Football '10 so some posts will have to wait.